Lowetide: What Oilers management must reckon with in roster construction

The Edmonton Oilers will have played five seasons with Ken Holland as general manager when the schedule runs out next spring.

There will not be a sixth season with Holland at the helm.

The moves on Sunday, replacing head coach Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch and assistant coach Dave Manson with Paul Coffey, may or may not have been Holland’s solo decision.

Those decisions highlight the uncertainty in the organization at this time. A cascade of transactions has occurred since Jeff Jackson was named CEO, and what transpired Sunday is just the latest in a string of management and coaching moves.

The next natural step will be to name a general manager. That might be Jackson himself, or AGMs Brad Holland of Keith Gretzky. An outside addition is also possible.

There are multiple candidates, internal and external, for the job of taking the organization and the elite talented housed within to the next level.

It will be a most difficult job.

What should the next GM do?

Find out about Draisaitl (and then McDavid) 

The two biggest decisions for Holland’s replacement will surround the futures of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Draisaitl will be eligible to sign an extension on July 1, 2024, with McDavid eligible on the same date in 2025.

The cap hit isn’t the main issue. The big question is will Draisaitl sign? If he does, getting McDavid’s name on a deal is probably easier.

If Draisaitl is hesitant to sign, the new GM is going to have to make a decision.

Allowing Draisaitl to play out his final year and then leap to a new club in free agency represents a massive asset loss. Owner Daryl Katz would surely want management to protect against losing one of the league’s best for nothing.

That means a trade.

What would it look like? A team dealing for Draisaitl would only look to give up assets that were not central to a Stanley Cup run.

The November 2021 deal that sent Jack Eichel from the Buffalo Sabres to the Vegas Golden Knights could represent a reasonable template for a Draisaitl trade. The Sabres received a future 35-goal scorer in Alex Tuch, a middle-six winger in Peyton Krebs, plus a first- and second-round pick.

That might seem like a small payment for Draisaitl, and it is in fact pennies on the dollar.

That’s why it is imperative for the new general manager to sign Draisaitl next summer, and then McDavid the following July.

Decide on the kids

Much of this work can be done now, or when management decides to pull the chute on making the playoffs.

All of Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie should see plenty of playing time over the rest of 2023-24 in an effort to figure out if they are in the team’s future plans.

Value contracts will be needed, and all three could play feature roles on an Oilers team in the future.

There are several players in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors who could also get action this season.

Big league games played by defencemen Xavier Bourgault, Ben Gleason, Noel Hoefenmayer and Phil Kemp and goaltender Olivier Rodrigue could give an indication about possible NHL futures.

New coach Knoblauch could help next year’s team by auditioning several of these names for 20-plus games over the course of the season.

Getting the cap in order

The next general manager will arrive to a more welcoming salary cap number (estimates have it at $88 million) but not all the news is good.

Holland’s signing of winger Connor Brown includes a bonus of $3.225 million that will kick in once the player hits 10 games played. He is currently at nine.

That means that much of the cap increase anticipated for 2024-25 (as high as $4.5 million in extra room) will be eaten up by Brown’s bonus that will be earned this year.

It’s a major albatross for the next general manager, no matter how well Brown performs this season.

What can the next general manager do?

Buying out Jack Campbell would save $3.9 million on next year’s cap, via PuckPedia. Based on Edmonton’s own past, that’s the play here.

If the club walks free agents Warren Foegele ($2.75 million), Mattias Janmark ($1 million) and Sam Gagner ($775,000) there could be some savings. Brown ($775,000) may or may not be retained; his cap hit would be more should he return.

Assuming reasonable contracts for the current RFAs, and a normal progression of prospects in the system, the new general manager might arrive to this roster next summer.

Assuming reasonable contracts for roster players who need new deals, the new cap number would be around $77 million.

The cap room: $11 million based on an $88 million cap, with 19 of 23 players signed.

A key element to the projected cap room involves the development of young players (highlighted above in blue). It’s a key item for this year’s team. There is time for the Oilers to give young players opportunities in the NHL.

Bottom line

Everything turns on the Draisaitl negotiations.

The Oilers will have a good idea about which way the wind is blowing by draft week and certainly by the opening of free agency.

There’s zero chance the Oilers win a Draisaitl trade. He’s also one year from free agency so can call his shot in terms of destination. Fans may hear about contract negotiations by the Draisaitl camp with another NHL team in front of a trade. Expect at least some of the asset value coming Edmonton’s way (should a deal happen) to be in the form of draft picks.

If Draisaitl can be signed, things flow easily for the team’s next GM. That hurdle accomplished, the next step will be buying out Campbell and finding free agent/trade options to occupy areas of need.

If Rodrigue continues to develop, that could solve a major issue.

As of this instant, the NHL team’s needs next season (with Draisaitl secure) would be in goal, right-handed defence and No. 2 right wing.

Same as it ever was.

The rest of this season

Management and the coaching staff won’t pull the chute on the season in any visible way until the deadline. Tickets need to be sold and the Oilers are a wildly entertaining team when all hands are healthy. That’s a key reason for the switch of the coaching staff.

There’s an outside chance the roster catches fire and climbs the standings, even making the playoffs.

It’s a distant bell currently, and the amount of energy and effort required to get back in the race likely means the playoffs will end in disappointment.

This Oilers team is beyond baffling, with the injuries to McDavid and Mattias Ekholm, along with the change in defensive deployment, the only outside forces to impact what was a strong roster one year ago.

The goaltending has been an issue, and defensive coverage (by forwards and defence) mystifying.

The next general manager will need to improve those areas.

Signing Draisaitl will be the first big test of the summer of 2024.

It won’t be the only one.

(Photo of Leon Draisaitl: Joe Nicholson / USA Today)